Hard to believe summer is practically over! I have started/stopped writing this latest edition of my market commentary many times, so I hope the wait and more lengthy than usual content are both worthwhile. I will attempt to speak philosophically at the beginning, but I promise to share thoughts on markets towards the end.
Last week we dropped Matthew off at a boarding school in FL (his senior year of HS), making us empty nesters! (see picture) Those of you who have raised a child to adulthood know these seminal moments bring much introspection… did I share all the wisdom I had hoped? Could/should I have done some things differently? What are the most important things I can share while he’s listening in these last few weeks? Perhaps it’s this introspection that has me more wordy than normal, so I’ve split this up into four sections: connectedness (my conclusion of ‘the most important thing to share’, was the importance of the ‘golden rule’ with ingredients of Christian forgiveness and gratitude); thinking for self (how to make sense of all the crazy noise out there today and making your own decisions vs being manipulated); geopolitics (not necessarily part of my last minute Matthew musings, but related to both connectedness and independent thought with ingredients of historical context); and markets (what is the Fed gonna do, and why is it so important? And not?)
About connectedness
Has anyone noticed that people are just pissed off? When I was driving back over the weekend, I stopped at the world’s saddest rest stop. The actual bathrooms were under construction, so they had brought in a bunch of port o potties. But that wasn’t the sad part. The sad part was that everyone there was mad. Nobody looked at each other. It was as if we didn’t want to see or hear anyone else let alone interact. God forbid. I tried to smile at a few & crack a joke about the high class nature of our predicament. Not a smile, not a glance. It was the ‘zone of disgust’. It feels that in many ways we have been living within the ‘zone of disgust’ since the Pandemic. I don’t know, maybe before. My mind for some reason tuned in the Beatles song, Eleanor Rigby: “ah, look at all the lonely people!” It’s a song about nobody connecting with Eleanor or Father Mckenzie. Depressing. We need each other. We need connection, it’s built into our DNA by our creator. I wanted to share with Matthew that connectedness comes from many things, but has foundations built on the golden rule (trust), forgiveness (we all screw up), and gratitude (maybe our biggest source of happiness).
There are so many ways for us to connect to each other, but I don’t believe social media, where we’re usually speaking through a big tech algorithm that might have an agenda, is one of them. Music and art are ways to connect directly to the artists and with people who share those interests. Beauty is another way to connect to nature and share love for that beauty with others. And of course a book is a wonderful way to connect to people from nearly any time in history along with those who share an interest. But perhaps for me (an admitted extrovert), I think the most powerful form of connection is one we have directly with each other, ideally face to face. We can react in real time to each other and use our senses in deeper levels of communication and thus hopefully connection. It is one reason I love live music so much more than a recording—you are interacting with the musicians on stage as they feel and react to the energy of an audience. It’s an authentic conversation. It’s enjoyment of shared humanity and beauty. It’s why I’m lukewarm about Zoom, even if it opens doors for conversations across geography. And it is this level of connectedness we missed during the Pandemic, and I think it has us all pissed off. I think the lack of connectedness hurt everyone on the planet and has exacerbated the bad. It would be naïve to think that more hugs will solve world problems, but I think collectively finding more connectedness through millions of small ways will move the needle back towards sanity. Maybe with the worst of the pandemic behind us, it will naturally happen as we get out and about with each other again. But, if you are waffling between throwing that party or not throwing the party—throw the party! To that end, look for more info from us on social activities we will throw for our clients as year end approaches, including our wine and chocolate function.
One of my favorite newsletters (highly recommend) is Epsilon Theory and you’ll see some links below as I think some of their comments are so relevant to my last minute parenting. I warn you, they’re long and heady (esp for this state school educated brain), but most worthwhile if you have the time. Their most recent post in a four part series titled “Narrative and Metaverse—Carrying the Fire” https://www.epsilontheory.com/narrative-and-metaverse-pt-4-carrying-the-fire/ is a wonderful thought provoking piece on trying to scale connectedness to counteract deliberate efforts to pull us apart. Ultimately, while Ben describes one intriguing way to connect between generations, it’s a call to action for readers to create means of connection using their own values and experiences.
About thinking for self
This brings me to my next thought I tried to share with Matthew, the importance today of maintaining discerning eyes. One of the best things I watched during lockdowns of 2020 was a series of lessons from Masterclass (a really cool app if you have time) from Neil deGrasse Tyson on “Scientific Thinking and Communication”. Honestly, I think it should be required ‘reading’ for everyone. In the series, he simply reviews the scientific method (question, hypothesis, prediction, testing, analysis) in an entertaining way to help use critical thinking and avoid bias in everyday life. The applications are endless, especially in my business where objective thought is required. But I also believe it’s helpful when making conclusions about the mass of information (and disinformation) populating airwaves and social media in today’s world. The noise is endless. Finding intelligent voices that contain useful but frequently different opinions I think essential to forming our own conclusions more free from manipulation. For instance, social media platforms use algorithms (computer programs) that track every click or view to try and figure out what we like so they will put similar or related content in front of us. It’s designed to attract our attention and keep us on the platform as long as possible. Unfortunately, it can feed ‘confirmation bias’—meaning, especially in the political realm, it will put more of one opinion in front of us without any other opposing view. It’s the main reason I use social media for looking at fun things like family baby pictures and try to avoid anything political… it keeps my feed free of politics so I can seek out other news sources from a more balanced perspective. And it makes my feed mostly fun and stress free.
Another fascinating project in this realm is from one of my favorite economists that I previously mentioned, Ben Hunt. He just partnered with Vanderbilt to try and create a free resource that will help readers differentiate between real and ‘fiat’ news (where there is an agenda to influence your opinion). Think Big Tech, Big Media and Big Politics are trying to influence your opinion with ‘weaponized news’? Check this out to stay tuned to a future resource that you might find helpful in keeping your opinions your own: https://www.epsilontheory.com/the-fifteen-faces-of-fiat-news/. I think the most important ingredient I wanted to share with him was simply being critical of all that you read and trying to consider a diversity of opinions to craft your own view.
About geopolitics
In mid-July I had a wonderful week attending both a Medal of Honor dinner with 14 of the living MOH recipients and 3 civilian winners of their ‘Citizen Honors Service Awards’ and watching the musical ‘Hamilton’. While it’s easy to get quickly upset about direction of our country if you watch traditional news nowadays, these events reminded me of two important truths: our Nation has always been divided, but it has also been full of good people who lead our progress. Case in point: Adams called Jefferson “a mean-spirited, low-lived fellow (continuing with words not fit for print)…”…. Martha Washington called Jefferson “one of the most detestable of mankind.” Hamilton and his son were both killed in duels resulting from political debates. You don’t need to search much to see similar meanspirited debates in every era within our Republic. Yet, check out any of the people honored on this site https://www.cmohs.org/citizen-honors… Heroes everywhere in military and civilian clothes. My brother and I (OK, really my US Army Veteran brother-they tolerated me) were invited by a Recipient to the post-reception and we had the once-in-a-lifetime fortune of being in a room full of these heroes. (check out the pictures) Just don’t call them heroes. Simply people who, when they were called to action, simply answered. It just so happens by luck and fate that the call to action ended up being epic. I can’t put into words how humbling it was to hear these stories, from humble people. And there were people of all ages, including a young civilian boy of 13 with his family who are doing amazing charitable work (Michael Ahern–https://www.classy.org/campaign/scoops-for-troops/c266603.) Whenever you worry about our country, just look at a kid like Michael… you’ll realize that we’re going to be ok. And I would say I know children in my neighborhood, in my family, amongst my clients that would similarly inspire. Keep your eyes open for them and you will see them everywhere. It doesn’t mean we don’t have problems (Ukraine, China, divisive politics, etc), it just means we have people who will be well equipped to handle them. As we have before (Revolution, Civil War, WW1, WW2, Civil Rights, Cold War, Cuban Missile Crisis, etc). As long as good people continue to care and answer the call. Remember that Sting song, “Russians?” “What might save us, me and you, is if the Russians love their children too…” Shared humanity, connectedness, and good people carrying us forward and answering the call.
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