 Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! Impossible to believe 2023 is almost over. We have been extremely busy this year end helping with year-end activities, closing out what has been a good year for the markets and for our clients. We had many clients this year with some near misses and surgeries (you know who you are!!), but we are most grateful that everyone remains fairly healthy! The Fed “Potential Pivot” Officially, the Fed has not pivoted and remains on pause. However, the dot plots, which are the Fed Governor’s expectations on where rates will be in the future, show for the first time that they expect rate reductions next year. This has sent the market into rally mode and I believe signals that the Fed will be supportive of markets and far less likely to increase rates. While I’m sure we’ll see volatility, it’s likely this rally continues for a while. Once again, economics supersedes geopolitics. I do not believe this means that inflation is over. To the contrary, one of the forces bringing inflation back down was higher long-term rates. The most recent rally has reduced those rates, making it more likely we have another bout with higher prices. While I don’t believe we will see a return to the 9% we saw in 2022, I also don’t believe we’re going to see 2% anytime soon and remain bullish on positions tied with ownership (like equities). Martha Clark RULES! If you haven’t already, please say ‘hi’ to Martha when you see or talk to her! She joined us mid October, has been drinking from a fire hose of daily training, and has already been able to help our team in countless ways. Right now she is scheduling appointments, preparing many reports for us, helping Ansley with administration, and already passed her first securities exam (SIE)! Brief 2023 reflections If you think 2023 was crazy… I’d have to agree with you! I’m sure you’ll read many other articles chronicling all that happened this year, so I won’t take up space. To me, this was a year of epic noise requiring intense concentration to block out noise and pay attention to financial signals that matter. It’s normal for markets/geopolitics/media to try and influence your attention. This year, it was just much harder. With so much information and news being thrown at you, where do you pay attention? For me, it’s always about following the money. We lost a titan of investing this year, Charlie Munger. He was Warren Buffett’s right hand man. And a legend in his own right, who was happy to follow in Buffett’s shadows. You can find many of his quotes in the book Poor Charlie’s Almanac, but one of my favorites is: “Show me the incentive and I’ll show you the outcome.” Especially in investing, most everything else is noise. Another good one: “Your life must focus on the maximization of objectivity.” I cannot say that I’m perfect pursuing objectivity and tracing incentives, but I can say that both help dramatically in investing. It’s hard not to have an opinion when media DEMANDS you choose a cause and follow what they tell you to do or think. But I’m not going to do it—I choose to keep my autonomy of mind and action and follow objectively what I believe the facts about money and finance are telling me. I’m very proud to say I believe my brilliant clients do too. I feel intensely grateful to be surrounded by such a wonderful family, a wonderful team at work, and a wonderful group of clients to serve. I know we’re past Thanksgiving, but that is the feeling I hope everyone carries through the Holidays. Merry Christmas, Happy New Year, and hope you enjoy time with your families! Here’s your Harbour team with spouses at our Christmas party!  |
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